Abstract Summary
Existing stochastic models of slips depend on computing the probability that the required coefficient of friction (rCOF) exceeds the available coefficient of friction (aCOF). The result is an estimate of the probability of a slip. However, in some applications it is known that a slip has occurred and the analyst wants to estimate the probability distribution of aCOF (in litigation, for example). In theory, Bayes Theorem could be used to compute the posterior probability of aCOF given a slip occurred. A hybrid Bayesian network model was developed for this purpose. It showed that including whether a slip occurred or not dramatically changed the posterior distribution of aCOF.
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